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Can Trump beat Ohio's Kasich in his home state?

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A Quinnipiac University poll puts businessman Donald Trump in first place in Ohio.

WASHINGTON -- Businessman Donald Trump leads GOP primary voters in the home of Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who has pinned his White House hopes on doing well in the state Republicans always have needed to carry to win the presidency. 

Trump led Kasich, 31 percent to 26 percent, in a Quinnipiac University poll of Ohio voters released Tuesday.

Kasich is the last remaining governor in the GOP presidential primary race with the withdrawal of Gov. Chris Christie after New Hampshire and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush after South Carolina.

No Republican has ever won the presidency without carrying Ohio. 

"The Donald Trump train begins the three-week campaign for Ohio's crucial delegates on the right track," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll in Hamden, Conn.

Kasich finished second in New Hampshire Feb. 9, keeping his campaign alive for a more contests, including his home state, as he seeks to pick up the support of more moderate Republican voters and donors who formerly backed Bush and Christie. He polled just 7.6 percent in South Carolina and finished fifth.

Ohio votes March 15, two weeks after the bevy of primaries known as Super Tuesday. 

The two U.S. senators elected with Tea Party support, Ted Cruz of Texas and Marco Rubio of Florida, trailed Trump and Kasich. Cruz had 21 percent and Rubio 13 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson was at 5 percent.

Cruz won the Iowa caucuses Feb. 1 while Trump finished first in both the New Hampshire and the South Carolina primaries and is leading in polls prior to Tuesday's Nevada caucuses.

"A Kasich Ohio win is crucial to the Republicans trying to stop the New York businessman's nomination," Brown said. "If Trump can defeat Kasich in his home state, that would be an impressive demonstration of his strength in a state that is just now getting attention."

The poll of 759 likely Ohio Republican primary voters was taken Feb. 16-20 and had a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.

Jonathan D. Salant may be reached at jsalant@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @JDSalant. Find NJ.com Politics on Facebook. 

 

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